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曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场(上)

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Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Wake-up call

梧桐树:警钟

The once-benevolent Fed now looks vengeful for markets

曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场

When stocks boomed early in the pandemic, an internet meme captured the madness of the moment.

疫情初期股市大涨,一张网络表情包捕捉到了那一刻的疯狂。

On the left-hand side of the image, a worried man exclaims that simply creating money cannot save the economy; on the right, a man representing the Federal Reserve replies “Haha money printer go brrr” while cranking out dollars.

在图片的左边,一个忧心忡忡的人惊呼道,仅靠造钱并不能拯救经济;在右边,一名代表美联储的男子一边大量印钞,一边回答道:“哈哈,印钞机开动”。

Joseph Politano, author of Apricitas, an economics newsletter, recently tweaked the meme to better fit the present situation.

经济学时事通讯《Apritas》的作者约瑟夫·波利塔诺最近稍稍改动了这张图,使其更符合当前的形势。

On the left, the worried man laments that excessive monetary tightening is increasing the risk of a recession; to the right, the Fed representative retorts “Haha money vacuum go brrr”, while hoovering up dollars.

图片左边,那位忧心忡忡的人哀叹,过度的货币紧缩正在增加经济衰退的风险;右边,代表美联储的人一边吸走美元,一边回嘴:“哈哈,吸钞器开动。”

In more analytical, if less humorous, terms, another way of framing this shift is to ask whether the Fed put has become a Fed call.

如果正经一点,从更具分析性的角度来看,另一种描述这种转变的方式是:问一问美联储的看跌期权是否已经变为美联储看涨期权。

The concept of a Fed put dates back to the era of Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the central bank.

美联储看跌期权的概念可以追溯到美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘的时代。

Starting with the stockmarket crash in 1987 and continuing for more than three decades, the Fed earned a reputation for easing policy, notably by cutting interest rates, whenever share prices plunged.

1987年股市崩盘后的30多年里,美联储以实施宽松政策而闻名,尤其是股价一暴跌就实施的降息政策。

To traders this looks a bit like a put option, a basic hedging tool that sets a price floor for investments.

对于交易员来说,这看起来有点像看跌期权,这是一种为投资设定价格下限的基本对冲工具。

A Fed call would imply just the opposite: namely, that the central bank is in effect capping the market (similar to traders who sell call options on their stock holdings).

美联储看涨期权正相反,意味着:央行实际上为市场价格设定上限(类似于交易员出售所持股票的看涨期权)。

Steve Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, laid out this provocative idea in a recent note to clients: “The Fed may push back against equity market gains until it is comfortable that disinflation is a lock—in other words, [there is] a Fed call.”

渣打银行的史蒂夫·英格兰德在最近给客户的一份报告中阐述了这一引人深思的想法:“在美联储确信通货紧缩已成定局之前,它可能会一直打压市场收益--换句话说,美联储看涨期权已经到来。”

This argument may, at first glance, seem rather crude.

乍一看,这种说法可能显得有些不成熟。

The Fed has long denied that it targets asset prices in setting monetary policy.

长期以来,美联储一直否认其在制定货币政策时有意影响资产价格。

Narrowly, its denials are credible.

它的否认勉强还算可信。

Central bankers look at oodles of data, from real-time growth figures to surveys of inflation expectations.

央行官员们要看大量数据,从实时增长数据到通胀预期调查的数据。

They cannot afford to be swayed by swings in stocks.

他们承受不起股市波动的影响。

Moreover, share prices reflect many factors ranging from the overall economic outlook to corporate idiosyncrasies.

此外,股价能反映许多因素,大到整体经济前景,小到企业特质。

Why would the Fed target something that is so volatile and only partially responsive to its actions?

股价波动如此之大,美联储针对股价采取的措施也并非全部有效,美联储为什么要影响股价呢?

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['vendʒfəl]

想一想再看

adj. 复仇心重的,报复的

联想记忆
['ekwəti]

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n. 权益,产权,(无固定利息的)股票,衡平法

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['setiŋ]

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n. 安装,放置,周围,环境,(为诗等谱写的)乐曲

 
[ri'flekt]

想一想再看

v. 反映,反射,归咎

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['kɔnsept]

想一想再看

n. 概念,观念

 
[pæn'demik]

想一想再看

adj. 全国流行的 n. (全国或全世界范围流行的)疾

联想记忆
['vækjuəm]

想一想再看

n. 真空,空间,真空吸尘器
adj. 真空的

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[ri'zə:v]

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n. 预备品,贮存,候补
n. 克制,含蓄

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['kredəbl]

想一想再看

adj. 可信的,可靠的

联想记忆
['vɔlətail]

想一想再看

adj. 挥发性的,反复无常的,易变的,易爆的 n. 挥

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